Posted to The Age (13/12/2011) on 13/12/2011 at 11:51 PM
Commenting on "Where is the housing market headed?"
http://theage.domain.com.au/blogs/talking-property/where-is-the-housing-market-headed-20111213-1osf0.html
@Stuart-Rose & Jones Property, Loto numbers come out in random fashion, but real estate peak and trough can be predicted by analysing various factors. By that, I don't mean the shape of the coin that you toss, or how high you toss it. Although I wrote it cheekily, I do believe that March/April 2013 is the likely time for upswing.
The predictive model is complex, and some of the factors include: past cycle, demographic change, city expansion, local economy, global economy, government policy, etc. Prediction is based on objective as well as subjective assessment.
If you have been following my comments in response to many real estate articles, you would have learnt a thing or two. Back in early 2009, I alerted many friends that this fall could be as drastic as 40% for some overly heated areas, and 25% on the average. I also alerted some people who had intention to sell their high value properties to do so sooner and take the money to go on a world cruise. Upon return, they could lease a place of their choice, until they decided to buy at discounted price.
The biggest barrier is not affordability, but employment uncertainty. 5.3% of unemployment rate is too rubbery. By my calculation, the [latent] unemployment rate is 3 times as high.
My words of advice, "you eat everyday does not mean that you need to own a food store. Owning a home is not mandatory; there are other options of accommodation".
Commenting on "Where is the housing market headed?"
http://theage.domain.com.au/blogs/talking-property/where-is-the-housing-market-headed-20111213-1osf0.html
@Stuart-Rose & Jones Property, Loto numbers come out in random fashion, but real estate peak and trough can be predicted by analysing various factors. By that, I don't mean the shape of the coin that you toss, or how high you toss it. Although I wrote it cheekily, I do believe that March/April 2013 is the likely time for upswing.
The predictive model is complex, and some of the factors include: past cycle, demographic change, city expansion, local economy, global economy, government policy, etc. Prediction is based on objective as well as subjective assessment.
If you have been following my comments in response to many real estate articles, you would have learnt a thing or two. Back in early 2009, I alerted many friends that this fall could be as drastic as 40% for some overly heated areas, and 25% on the average. I also alerted some people who had intention to sell their high value properties to do so sooner and take the money to go on a world cruise. Upon return, they could lease a place of their choice, until they decided to buy at discounted price.
The biggest barrier is not affordability, but employment uncertainty. 5.3% of unemployment rate is too rubbery. By my calculation, the [latent] unemployment rate is 3 times as high.
My words of advice, "you eat everyday does not mean that you need to own a food store. Owning a home is not mandatory; there are other options of accommodation".
