Posted to The Age (13/12/2010) on 14/12/2010 at 3:36 PM
Commenting on “Pushing bricks and mortar”
- Economy is not as robust as what ABS reckoned, and the real unemployment rate is much higher than reported. Many people face financial trouble in meeting mortgage payment, and more mortgagee auctions will take place;
- Closing the loophole of allowing the foreign investors to invest in secondhand properties without FIRB approval results in the collapse in sale price in many suburbs due to lack of competition;
- Change of government policies in international education results in drastic drop in international students coming to Australia, thus kills off student accommodation rental demand. Many properties used for such purpose will be forced to sell;
- Change of policies also results in closure of international colleges, which normally lease commercial buildings used as classrooms. Many of such buildings will be vacant;
- 2010 Christmas retail sales will be below previous years', threatening the survival of some small businesses. Unemployment will shoot up beyond many economists' forecast in Jan and Feb 2011. Businesses for sale will be increased;
- The median price across the board in Melbourne will decline to around $550,000 by June 2011;
- In general, there will more listings than sales from December onwards;
- 2011 is not a year for the rookies - only the experienced survive
ASX index will be below 5000 points for another few more months, likely up till March
