Feeling weak (Post 3 of 3 Posts)

Posted to The Age (15/4/2012) on 18/4/2012 at 2:45 PM
Commenting on "Feeling weak"
http://watoday.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/feeling-weak-20120414-1x0g2.html


@Andrew Smith, you're quite correct to point out about international students market. In fact, I've written many articles about this AUD18.8 billion industry (when at its peak), second largest "export income" after the mining industry.

When the government policies brought in so abruptly, billions of dollars were wiped out, even if a third to quarter is gone, that will equate to AUD6.1b to AUD4.7b, good enough to achieve budget surplus without hurting the taxpaying public.

Will the students swamp the colleges again? I doubt so. UK, USA and Canada have been attracting the students with more favourable Visa and after-graduation-stay conditions than Australia.

Many private colleges and TAFE could not survive such disastrous downturn, and became history. Dragged down by this collapse are many teaching staff, mainly sessional teachers, who are the baby boomers. Reduced income implies reduced investment in property or stock market.

Australia is not an isolated island in the global market. Our success attracted many vultures who wanted a slice of the action. Our government should learn a lesson not to introduce policies on the run!

Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep up (Post 2 of 2)

Posted to The Age (23/12/2011) on 23/12/2011 at 2:44 PM (Not published by Newspaper)
Commenting on "Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep"
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/housing-shortage-bites-as-supply-fails-to-keep-up-20111221-1p55v.html

Thank you, Andrew Smith, for mentioning the Knight Student Visa Review. The international education industry has been damaged severely and the heyday is over. I was on three sides of the fence riding high from boom to bust, as a teacher/trainer, student, and student accommodation owner.

International students’ presence created service industries catering for this market niche; there was an increase in commercial properties used as campuses, groceries, cafes / restaurants, travel agencies, migration advisory and consultation offices, etc.

Many of the student accommodation properties had been sold at reduced prices recently. These properties are not just classed as an investment property, but also as a business concern. Generally speaking, a property leased to less than 4 separate tenants do not require a permit and is not classified as a student accommodation. Many houses, units and apartments including those at Dockland are leased to international students.

There are owners who shared their houses with international students by providing home-stay. This is essentially a tax-free income which helps to pay off the mortgage. The death of the industry has caused financial hardship for some of these property owners resulting in forgoing their properties.

Many policies of this Government are policies-on-the run, which have cost Australia dearly. I hope my comments do provide some insight about the education industry catering for the international students and how it impacts not only on the property market, but also other related service industries.

Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep up (Post 1 of 2, Part 3 of 3)

Posted to The Age (21/12/2011) on 22/12/2011 at 6:05 PM (Not published by Newspaper)
Commenting on "Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep up"
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/housing-shortage-bites-as-supply-fails-to-keep-up-20111221-1p55v.html

I cannot speak on behalf of other places, but my personal contacts reveal that the rental market for December in Melbourne has been the quietest in memory. According to one property manager, there was surge of 17% more properties listed for rent, and another told me that the telephone she had plenty of time to catch up with her paper and filing. These two areas are in different suburbs, at least 100 kilometre apart.

Although there are not many international students in these two suburbs mentioned above, this is real problem for many investors who own properties in CBD or near colleges, providing student accommodation. Those students who have completed their studies in December of 2011 have packed their bags, leaving the rented properties vacant. The once very profitable student accommodation industry is now officially dead.

The increased in number of properties for rental may also be due to increased number of previous tenants have purchased their own homes and move into new premises due the holiday season. There is another possibility that many new investment properties which offered rental guarantee are no longer in their honeymoon period, and these investment property owners now have to seek new tenants actively.

Under normal circumstances, December is busy for many estate agencies. Since very few internationally students come to Australia for next year enrolment, there is drastic drop in enquiries and demand for rental accommodation.

Another possible explanation is that interstate migration movement for job transfer is not happening, or speaking pessimistically job opportunity is dwindling in Victoria. If the underlying reason is about employment, people will feel insecure to move from job to another, leading to reduced tenancy movement.

Part 3 of 3

Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep up (Post 1 of 2, Part 2 of 3)

Posted to The Age (21/12/2011) on 21/12/2011 at 10:58 PM (Not published by Newspaper)
Commenting on "Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep up"
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/housing-shortage-bites-as-supply-fails-to-keep-up-20111221-1p55v.html

Thanks to the Government policies that our population has dropped substantially. The 300,000 population estimated growth was largely due to internationally students coming to study in Australia. The policies close the golden doors resulting in not only drop population, but also 18.8 billion worth of export income, second (or third) after mining. This resulted in the State and Federal budget shortfalls, which require businesses and taxpayers to fill the financial void.

Such substantial drop in population leads to similar drop in demand of housing, and all related service industries. While this drop may free up the rental market, it creates a dilemma for investors buying or owning properties to cater for this demand.

I would like to alert readers of the government's National Housing Supply Council (NHSC) report, including developers and investors alike, to digest it with a grain of salt. The report reveals information as at end of June 2010, while the Government policies became effective from 1July 2010. The impact is felt all across the education industries; multi-storey commercial buildings once used as campus have been posted with “For Lease” sign, many TAFE and private college teachers and administration staff have become unemployed, etc.

Part 2 of 3

Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep up (Post 1 of 2, Part 1 of 3)

Posted to The Age (21/12/2011) on 21/12/2011 at 10:58 PM (Not published by Newspaper)
Commenting on "Housing shortage bites as supply fails to keep up"
http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/housing-shortage-bites-as-supply-fails-to-keep-up-20111221-1p55v.html

The content of the title is in conflict with that of first paragraph. Furthermore, "…high prices kept many would-be buyers out of the market …" is incongruent to housing shortage.

The root of high real estate price can be traced back to one of the previous Prime Ministers who encouraged many young Australians to be degree holders rather than trade-qualified. Australia is confronted with big shortage of qualified tradespeople; consequently, large component of the total cost of construction is gobbled up by the tradespeople, not the material costs. The costs of tradespeople have sky rocketed literally, their earning is probably as much as, if not more than, a rocket scientist.

It is also rather unfortunate that the many buyers demand more than a house, be it new or renovated; they want a show case or a house equipped with expensive kitchens installed with brand named mod-cons, luxuriously finished bathroom, etc.

While new estates have sprung out further away from the CBD, businesses or employment opportunities have not been created by the same rate and proportion in those areas. Many potential buyers have come to the realisation that they need to live in areas with job offers and close to public transport. These criteria fit properties which command higher prices. In other words, the new entrants just cannot afford.

Part 1 of 3

Julia Gillard: not becalmed, just calm (Post 1 of 3, Part 3 of 3)

Posted to The Age (18/12/2011) on 18/12/2011 at 12:36 PM (Not published by newspaper)
Commenting on "Julia Gillard: not becalmed, just calm"
http://www.theage.com.au/national/julia-gillard-not-becalmed-just-calm-20111217-1p04p.html

The second largest export earner, international education industry, worth over 18 billion dollars has turned in ashes by the not-so-smart policies. This is a godsend for Great Britain, Canada and United States to pick up all the international students. Just look around the CBD's and she'll see "For Lease" sign posted outside the empty multi-storey office buildings once used as campuses. She should also ask those former teachers and trainers from private and TAFE colleges what they are doing with their spare time, or get Alan Fell to probe further why shortage of taxi drivers was not a serious problem during the past decade.

The sudden rise in high-ed intake is not due to good marketing or improved education system. The last of the overseas students were forced to pursue higher degrees, and soon this feeder will dry up in 2012. In fact enrolments in private and TAFE colleges are so low, and together with the funding cut, more jobs will be lost not only in the education industry, but also the real estate industry and industries required to service the 300,000 students. The negative flow-on effect is ginormous.

Part 3 of 3

Home owners' $300m blow 2

Posted to Herald Sun (9/10/2011) on 9/10/2011 at 12:56 PM
Commenting on “Home owners' $300m blow”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/home-owners-300-blow/story-fn7x8me2-1226162101573

Where have all the overseas students, mainly Chinese and Indians, gone to? Melbourne CBD is no longer the same on weekdays and weekends.

Most apartment investors are not owner occupiers. In fact, many of the high rise apartments are refurbished or built for special purpose – student accommodation! The change of Federal Government policies on visas and international education kill off at least 50% of the lucrative $18.8b international education industry, and even Ted Baillieu is feeling the pinch for the state revenue!

End Part 1 of 2

The demand of accommodation was not generated from local students, but those from overseas coming to study in private colleges, TAFEs and universities. Many of the apartments were sold off-the–plan to buyers overseas through exhibitions or seminars conducted in their country of origin. Investors, local and overseas, were attracted to rental guarantee, which unfortunately translates to inflated purchase price. However, due to lower interest rates couple of years ago, the rental return was far too attractive to walk away from.

Local investors can also offset their loan repayment by negative gearing. However, if rental demand decline due to shortage of student tenants, negative gearing becomes a big financial loss. Compounding the problem is that parents of overseas students are allowed to purchase properties when their children are studying here, on condition that the properties have to be sold after their completion of study. With hardly any new students coming, the demand of second-hand properties has dwindled, and therefore sold at a loss.

End Part 2 of 2

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Visa rule reforms give universities a lifeline

Posted to The Australia (23/9/2011) on 23/9/2011 at 3:14 AM (Not published by Newspaper)
Commenting on “Visa rule reforms give universities a lifeline”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/visa-rule-reforms-give-unversitieis-a-lifeline/story-fn59niix-1226144082762

Previously, some TAFE's and private colleges messed up the international education industry. They issued certificates to undeserving students, and fed sub-standard students to universities. When government polices changed in July 2010, many TAFE’s and private colleges started to offer degree courses.

The change caught many foreign students off-guard, and for those who hoped to apply for permanent residence after graduation had no choice but to enrol in the “high ed”. While the average number of foreign students may have fallen about 10% as reported during the last calendar year, the real figures in the second half was very much higher. After the announcement of the bad news regarding the changed policies, more than half of the potential foreign students mainly from India and China turned to other destinations, creating a big financial blackhole for the states and Australia. USA and UK benefited from another idiotic Labor’s policy-on-the-run, costing billions of dollars of “export income.”

The proofs are in the closure of many colleges and the slashing millions of dollars from the budgets of TAFE’s and universities. Many full time and sessional teachers, (including myself with 16 years of teaching/training experience) and administrative staff have been laid off. The proposed reform is nothing more than just following what UK is offering. It is important that the Government must NOT make another mistake. Overseas IELTS assessment should be treated with great caution, because money can buy good results in some countries.

I have written to newspapers on many occasions regarding prevalence of plagiarism in colleges and universities, but without any luck in getting my comments published. Some students do not have the English skill of a lower secondary student and yet they can get through the system studying Diploma courses.

Many foreign students are no better off than the asylum seekers queue jumpers trying to apply for permanent residence via the Visa loophole. The Government should not provide blanket Visa approvals and the right to two years of work after graduation. In order to be granted such privilege, students must achieve good scores or grades.

For goodness sake, don’t wreck the higher education industry!

Australia is the 'dumbest continent' according to Indian call centres

Posted to Adelaide Now (24/7/2011) on 24/7/2011 at 11:02 AM
Commenting on "Australia is the 'dumbest continent' according to Indian call centres"
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/ipad/aussies-called-dumb-racist-drinkers/story-fn6bqvxz-1226100480352

The call centre operators are just doing their job, just like you turning up to work in the employment prison called the office (if you are lucky enough to have one). I used to get upset by the calls, but later I realised that they were putting in genuine effort to make a living, much better than those who can work but don't want to and rely on welfare. Indians who work in call centres and speak English can operate computers, too. They are not dumb to believe in everything they were told, because they can get information from Internet and books to learn about the real Australia. Ignorant Australians who believe that Indians are gullible and racists should have a good look at themselves in the mirror. BTW, a dumb PM does not mean that all Australians are dumb! Undeniably, the Government did make many dumb policies and turned off the $18 billion international education tap last year. The negative flow on economic impact is immense and yet most Australians know little about this. Want to know more? Get the newspapers or TV stations to investigate this.

Government denies CPSU warning of job cuts in education department

Posted to Herald Sun (18/7/2011) on 18/7/2011 at 4:01 PM (Not yet published)
Commenting on "Government denies CPSU warning of job cuts in education department"
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/cpsu-warns-job-cuts-likely-in-the-education-department/story-fn7x8me2-1226096633731

Many sessional teachers have already lost their jobs since the downturn of international education sector. TAFE's are not getting the students/trainees because they cannot compete with the private colleges due to TAFE's higher fees and more stringent assessment.

Many private colleges provide government funded courses and print off certificates for Diploma and other qualifications without assessing the students/trainees properly. Since many assessors are paid by the number of assessments they assess, and quality is inversely proportionate to quantity. Many students/trainees complete their courses by RPL or RCC (recognised prior learning or recognised current competence). Colleges still receive full funding from the government even though the students/trainees have little or no face-to-face interaction with a human trainer.

The current VET system is based on competency-base-training. Many graduates do not make the grades at all. Plagiarism is a disastrous phenomenon, and the quality of some submissions are worst than a Year-10 student's.

Trainers are pressured to "pass" the "clients". After all, education IS a business!

Federal Budget 2011 - Swan's blueprint for surplus

Posted to Adelaide Now (11/5/2011) on 11/5/2011 at 1:07 AM
Commenting on “Federal Budget 2011 - Swan's blueprint for surplus”
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/swans-blueprint-for-surplus/story-fn8o0uyv-1226053507909

Does it mean that people like me mature-age person need to be retrained to work in mining towns in Western Australia or Queensland, go under the house to fix plumbing or up the roof top to install solar panels? I am well-trained, with post-graduate degree and other qualifications, more than qualified to train the untrained, and yet I find myself unemployed.

I had been a sessional TAFE and VET trainer for 15 years, until the international education bubble burst when the government changed policy. More than half of the international students choose not to come to Australia anymore, and therefore, many trainers like me are unemployed.

Life as a sessional teacher is very tough. We are hard working people, and no dole-bludgers. Each term, we queue up, not at Centrelink, but at the course coordinator office asking whether there is any work for us.

Budget 2011 Let's turn mining boom into job boom

Posted to Herald Sun (11/5/2011) on 11/5/2011 at 12:47 AM
Commenting on “Budget 2011: Let's turn mining boom into job boom, says Wayne Swan”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/federal-budget-2011/story-fn8melax-1226053631468

Does it mean that people like me mature-age person need to be retrained to work in mining towns in Western Australia or Queensland, go under the house to fix plumbing or up the roof top to install solar panels? I am well-trained, with post-graduate degree and other qualifications, more than qualified to train the untrained, and yet I find myself unemployed.

I had been a sessional TAFE and VET trainer for 15 years, until the international education bubble burst when the government changed policy. More than half of the international students choose not to come to Australia anymore, and therefore, many trainers like me are unemployed.

Life as a sessional teacher is very tough. We are hard working people, and no dole-bludgers. Each term, we queue up, not at Centrelink, but at the course coordinator office asking whether there is any work for us. I cannot speak on behalf of other trainers; yes, I do indirectly and crudely beg for work and therefore, money.

End 1 of 2


Posted to Herald Sun (11/5/2011) on 11/5/2011 at 1:02 AM

Creating 500000 jobs is pine in the sky; along the way probably more jobs are lost. Realistically the net number is probably negative or negligibly small. Do the politicians understand what training really entails? If this is Asia, where people have the right attitude to learn and want to be trained to excel rather than just be competent, training will be a breeze. Unfortunately, I find that the real success rate of people being trained and achieved proper outcome is far from satisfactory. After so many years in the training / education industry, I can only conclude that we are producing half-bake Rolls Royces instead of top quality T-Fords - it is still a long way to have "mass-produced" skilled workforce.

The mythical unemployment rate of around 5% is just pure nonsense. A person receiving payment for one hour during the survey period is considered as employed. In short, the real hidden unemployment rate should be at least 15% or more.

Many mature-age workers who have lost their jobs turn to running small businesses. Not that they are good at doing so, but they are not untitled to go on the dole queue, like the boat-people or welfare bludgers.

End of 2 of 2

VET needs funding upgrade

Posted to The Australian (4/5/2011) on 8/5/2011 at 12:12 PM
Commenting on “VET needs funding upgrade”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/opinion-analysis/vet-needs-funding-upgrade/story-e6frgcko-1226049332247>

Skills funding is going to be another humongous news on how service providers ripping-off the system. According to a source, this is already happening, with at least one provider signing off and issuing two to three thousand certificates in a year with hardly any students require attending a class, online or otherwise.

The funding model is a joke, too. Some programs are receiving both state and federal funding at the same time, which was once a cardinal sin known as double dipping.

The demise of international students coming to “study” makes some surviving service providers to become smarter by offering degree courses, in order to accommodate the so called “competent learners” to hang around longer. Hopefully the degrees, some of which are not worth the paper that is written on, will help to these desperate ones achieve their goal in getting permanent residency PR.

Computer technology creates bigger crooks in the education sector, and plagiarism is so widespread and getting more and more difficult to detect. One wonders how many “trained learners” who are deemed competent and become professional, are developing computer programs full of bugs which cost millions of dollars due to downtime or customers going to competitors; providing financial advices causing huge financial write-down of large institutions and livelihood ruin of ordinary mums and dads; building houses that crack or collapse with small earth movement, etc.

In the name of perceived cost saving and following the Jones’ trend, many service providers offer online courses. In reality online learning system is a false economy - it wastes more precious resource known as time, encourages slap-dash assessment and worst of all no one can tell who is really at the other end attending the course or doing the work!

No longer only the VCE examination solutions can be purchased from Victorian market, so the story goes, post graduate thesis are written by professional for a fee. Honest system only works well with honest people.

Pushing bricks and mortar

Posted to The Age (13/12/2010) on 14/12/2010 at 3:36 PM

Commenting on “Pushing bricks and mortar”

http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/pushing-bricks-and-mortar-20101213-18ull.html

1. Economy is not as robust as what ABS reckoned, and the real unemployment rate is much higher than reported. Many people face financial trouble in meeting mortgage payment, and more mortgagee auctions will take place;
2. Closing the loophole of allowing the foreign investors to invest in secondhand properties without FIRB approval results in the collapse in sale price in many suburbs due to lack of competition;
3. Change of government policies in international education results in drastic drop in international students coming to Australia, thus kills off student accommodation rental demand. Many properties used for such purpose will be forced to sell;
4. Change of policies also results in closure of international colleges, which normally lease commercial buildings used as classrooms. Many of such buildings will be vacant;
5. 2010 Christmas retail sales will be below previous years', threatening the survival of some small businesses. Unemployment will shoot up beyond many economists' forecast in Jan and Feb 2011. Businesses for sale will be increased;
6. The median price across the board in Melbourne will decline to around $550,000 by June 2011;
7. In general, there will more listings than sales from December onwards;
8. 2011 is not a year for the rookies - only the experienced survive

ASX index will be below 5000 points for another few more months, likely up till March