Posted to The Age (26/11/2011) on 28/11/2011 at 11:11 PM
Commenting on "Know whether the market is turning"
http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/know-whether-the-market-is-turning-20111125-1nymj.html
Even if one can predict the bottoming of the real estate cycle or knows of a winner, they may not become a millionaire due to fact that they cannot raise the fund. I would love to add a few more properties to my portfolio if I can raise the finance in the next few days.
In early 2009, I was laughed at by many, including my peers, when I said property prices in some areas could fall by 40% in the next downturn (meaning the present one). I was branded as a doomsday sadist. I always say there is nothing to worry about in good time. On the contrary, we must have enough reserve for the bad time and have strategy in place to ride out the worst.
When the market displays all the signs mentioned in the article, it may be too late to join in the fun. Buyers may be buying impulsively like the last boom, without doing enough homework, or borrowing excessively and unwisely from the wrong financial institutions.
End of Part 1 of 2
Commenting on "Know whether the market is turning"
http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/know-whether-the-market-is-turning-20111125-1nymj.html
Even if one can predict the bottoming of the real estate cycle or knows of a winner, they may not become a millionaire due to fact that they cannot raise the fund. I would love to add a few more properties to my portfolio if I can raise the finance in the next few days.
In early 2009, I was laughed at by many, including my peers, when I said property prices in some areas could fall by 40% in the next downturn (meaning the present one). I was branded as a doomsday sadist. I always say there is nothing to worry about in good time. On the contrary, we must have enough reserve for the bad time and have strategy in place to ride out the worst.
When the market displays all the signs mentioned in the article, it may be too late to join in the fun. Buyers may be buying impulsively like the last boom, without doing enough homework, or borrowing excessively and unwisely from the wrong financial institutions.
End of Part 1 of 2
Posted to The Age (26/11/2011) on 28/11/2011 at 11:12 PM
Commenting on "Know whether the market is turning"
http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/know-whether-the-market-is-turning-20111125-1nymj.html
Australia's economy, and therefore the real estate market, is not immune from the financial crises around different corners of the globe. The dominant influencers are US, EU and China at present, but other individual nations, can change the fortune in short period of time. Government policies, home and abroad, can also motivate or dampen investors’ enthusiasm in the market.
In addition to economic analysis, hypothetical real estate cycle, buyer psychological needs, company reporting period and federal budget announcement come into play in long range forecasting.
Long range forecasting is not as difficult as rocket science, but to pinpoint the exact month of a particular year takes more than just using a crystal ball.
End of Part 2 of 2
Commenting on "Know whether the market is turning"
http://theage.domain.com.au/home-investor-centre/know-whether-the-market-is-turning-20111125-1nymj.html
Australia's economy, and therefore the real estate market, is not immune from the financial crises around different corners of the globe. The dominant influencers are US, EU and China at present, but other individual nations, can change the fortune in short period of time. Government policies, home and abroad, can also motivate or dampen investors’ enthusiasm in the market.
In addition to economic analysis, hypothetical real estate cycle, buyer psychological needs, company reporting period and federal budget announcement come into play in long range forecasting.
Long range forecasting is not as difficult as rocket science, but to pinpoint the exact month of a particular year takes more than just using a crystal ball.
End of Part 2 of 2
